机场可持续发展分析评估及预警方法研究

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摘要

随着可持续发展理念的深入，各国机场在运营与建设中也逐步提出了绿色机

场可持续发展的战略方向。机场只有在经济、环境、社会的协调发展下，才能够

逐步实现以人为本、资源节约、环境友好的可持续发展。如何实现机场可持续运

营是机场长期以来关注的问题，机场的自我分析、评估与预警是其实现的保障。

因此本文结合国内外专家、学者、机场运营者、政府机构设立的相关标准，评价

方法等，构建我国的可持续发展评估指标体系，并对一些分析评估方法进行研究。

国内外很多专家、学者、机场运营者、政府部门均对机场可持续发展问题进

行了研究。美国与欧盟在这一方面研究较早，目前已经形成了自身的可持续发展

分析评估指标和相应的评估方法，并以年度或季度为单位进行分析评价。我国在

机场可持续发展方面，仅有少数学者进行了研究，主要研究思路为给出其评价指

标，建立相应的评价模型，进行实证分析。但是这些研究均不具有系统性，不能

对机场可持续发展进行较为全面的分析评价。

本文以系统工程的视角及理论出发，对机场可持续发展系统进行研究分析，

并详细分析环境、经济、社会各个子系统。根据各个系统的自身特点，结合国际、

国内学者研究成果；国际行业协会相关标准；美国及欧盟的机场可持续发展评价

指标体系；以及我国政府制定的相关标准选取机场可持续发展环境类、经济类、

社会类指标，构建一套适合我国机场可持续发展评估的指标体系。

在统计学角度，可持续发展具有较多的分析评价，本文结合上海机场可持续

发展分析实际需求及所设计的机场可持续发展指标对机场可持续发展分析评估方

法进行研究。研究了机场可持续发展系统评估方法，并针对所设计模型研究设计

了经济评估方法、社会评价方法以及环境评估方法。根据机场生产实际需要研究

了定性与定量综合评价法，统计学评价方法，模型评价方法。

客运是机场可持续运营的关键指标，既反映出机场的运营能力，同时也是社

会对机场服务的评价窗口。因此机场可持续运营需要对客运情况进行实时监控管

理，以服务于机场日常运营管理。本文借助机场历史客运量，使用马尔科夫链理

论，建立基于马尔科夫链的机场客运预警模型，并使用上海机场日常运营数据对

客运预警情况进行分析。

机场服务能力是决定其可持续发展的关键环节，本文结合研究确定的指标，

利用集对分析理论，建立基于集对分析的机场服务能力综合评估模型。在模型中

分别构建了机场交通服务、机场服务与服务设施、机场商贸服务、机场安检服务、

不正常航班地面服务共五个测评体系，使用信息熵权法构建综合评价体系，并利

用集对分析进行求解评估。最后使用 44 个机场的数据进行服务能力评价实证分析。

预警是机场可持续运营的警示牌，因此对机场可持续预警进行了一些分析研

究，结合现代预警理论及信息技术，前瞻性的架构了机场可持续发展预警系统，

并对其中部分功能进行了设计，结合业务流程设计出机场可持续发展预警的一般

流程模型，用于机场的可持续预警分析。

本文以期对机场可持续发展分析评估指标体系进行全面的研究，为我国机场

可持续发展提供一套完整有效的评估指标及方法。本文通过机场可持续发展评估

指标体系和评估预警方法的研究，借助马尔科夫链模型和集对分析评估方法，构

建了整体的机场可持续发展评估预警流程模型，以期能够为后续的机场可持续发

展研究工作者提供参考。

关键词：机场可持续发展评估指标体系马尔可夫链集对分析

ABSTRACT

With the deepening of the concept of sustainable development, the airport of many

countries are also gradually put forward the strategic direction of sustainable green

airport in the operation and construction. Only under the coordination of the

development of economic, environmental, social, the airport can be able to gradually

achieve people-oriented, resource-saving, environment-friendly and sustainable

development. How to achieve the airport sustainable is a long-standing issue that the

airport concerns, and the airport self-analysis, assessment and early warning protect its

realization. Therefore, this paper based on the domestic and foreign experts, scholars

standards, airport operators, government agencies established evaluation methods, to

construct evaluation index system of sustainable development of China's, to study some

analysis and evaluation methods.

Many domestic and foreign experts, scholars, airport operators, government

departments have been studied the airport issue of sustainable development. The United

States and the European Union earlier studied in this regard, has formed its own

analysis and evaluation of sustainable development indicators and appropriate

assessment methods. Our sustainable development at the airport, only a few scholars

have been studied, the main idea for the study was given its evaluation, the

establishment of appropriate evaluation model, then empirical analysis. However, these

studies are not systematic, not available a more comprehensive analysis and evaluation

for the sustainable development of the airport.

In this paper, the theory of systems engineering perspective and departure for the

airport system of sustainable development research and analysis, and a detailed analysis

of the various subsystems of environmental, economic and social. According to its own

characteristics of each system, combined with international and domestic scholars

research; international trade association standards; evaluation index system of the

United States and the European Union airports sustainable development; and related

standards developed by the Chinese government selected airport environmental

sustainability, economics social class indicators index system that suits our

sustainability assessment of airport.

In statistical terms, sustainable development with more analysis and evaluation,

this paper analyzes the sustainable development of Shanghai airport and the actual

needs of sustainable development indicators designed airport assessment methods for

the analysis of sustainable development of the airport study.

Research on Sustainable Development of the airport system evaluation assessment

methodology and research design model designed for economic assessment, evaluation

methods of social and environmental assessment methods. According to the actual

needs of the airport produce qualitative and quantitative study of the comprehensive

evaluation, statistical evaluation methods, and model evaluation methods.

Passenger airport is a key indicator of sustainable operations, both reflecting the

airport operational capacity, but also the social evaluation of airport services window.

To serve the airport daily operational management, need to monitoring and management

of passenger real-time. With the help of airport passenger traffic history, using Markov

chain theory, based on the Markov chain model of airport passenger warning and use

data on the daily operations of the Shanghai Airport Passenger warnings were analyzed.

Airport service capability is the key link in their sustainable development, this

paper studies the indicators identified using set pair analysis theory, based on the

collection of airport capacity analysis of integrated assessment models. The model were

constructed airport transportation service, airport services and facilities, airport business

services, airport security services, irregular flight ground service a total of five

evaluation system, build a comprehensive evaluation system using information entropy

method, and use of set pair analysis solved evaluation. Finally, using 44 data service

airport capacity assessment empirical analysis.

Sustainable airport operations warning signs, so the airport sustainable warning

done some analysis, combined with modern theories of early warning and information

technology, forward-looking framework for sustainable development of early warning

systems at the airport, and some of these features were designed combining business

process design out of the airport general process model of sustainable development of

early warning, early warning analysis for sustainable airport.

In this paper, the purpose is to conduct a comprehensive study for the sustainable

development of the airport, to provide a complete and effective assessment indicators

and methods, to analysis of the sustainable development of the airport evaluation system.

This paper studies the airport evaluation index system of sustainable development of

early warning and assessment methods, using Markov chain model and set of analysis

and evaluation method to construct the overall assessment of the sustainable

development of the airport early warning process model, in order to be able to follow

sustainable airport researchers develop reference.

Key Word ：Airport, Sustainable development, Evaluation Index

System, Markov Chain, Set Pair Analysis

中文摘要

ABSTRACT

第一章绪论 ..................................................... 1

1.1 研究背景和意义 .............................................. 1

1.1.1 研究背景 ................................................ 1

1.1.2 研究意义 ................................................ 1

1.2 国内外研究现状 .............................................. 2

1.2.1 国外研究与实践 .......................................... 2

1.2.2 国内研究与实践 .......................................... 5

1.2.3 国内外研究与实践对比分析 ............................... 11

1.3 研究内容和创新之处 ......................................... 12

1.3.1 研究体系 ............................................... 12

1.3.2 研究内容 ............................................... 13

1.3.3 论文结构 ............................................... 14

1.3.4 创新性说明 ............................................. 17

第二章机场可持续发展评估指标体系 ............................... 19

2.1 评估指标体系的构建 ......................................... 19

2.1.1 构建功能 ............................................... 19

2.1.2 构建原则 ............................................... 20

2.1.3 构建体系框架 ........................................... 21

2.2 环境类指标体系构建 ......................................... 23

2.2.1 环境指标流程 ........................................... 23

2.2.2 指标选取过程 ........................................... 23

2.2.3 指标体系设计 ........................................... 25

2.3 经济类指标体系构建 ......................................... 27

2.4 社会类指标体系构建 ......................................... 29

2.5 本章小结 ................................................... 31

第三章机场可持续发展评估方法研究 ............................... 32

3.1 评估方法分类 ............................................... 33

3.2 描述型评估方法 ............................................. 33

3.2.1 经济评估 ............................................... 33

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摘要：

摘要随着可持续发展理念的深入，各国机场在运营与建设中也逐步提出了绿色机场可持续发展的战略方向。机场只有在经济、环境、社会的协调发展下，才能够逐步实现以人为本、资源节约、环境友好的可持续发展。如何实现机场可持续运营是机场长期以来关注的问题，机场的自我分析、评估与预警是其实现的保障。因此本文结合国内外专家、学者、机场运营者、政府机构设立的相关标准，评价方法等，构建我国的可持续发展评估指标体系，并对一些分析评估方法进行研究。国内外很多专家、学者、机场运营者、政府部门均对机场可持续发展问题进行了研究。美国与欧盟在这一方面研究较早，目前已经形成了自身的可持续发展分析评估指标和相应的评估方法，并以年度或季...

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