USST_Arts_112050608基于数据包络分析法的碳减排经济效率评价研究

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摘要

伴随着人类经济社会发展中碳排放量的不断增加，全球气候变化问题日益严

峻，严重危害着人类自身的安全和经济的可持续发展。为了有效控制碳排放量，

世界主要发达国家间签订了《京都协议书》，此举成为了各国达成碳减排共识的里

程碑。然而，缘于发达国家和发展中国家碳排放高峰期的错位，截止 2013 年的华

沙气候会议，发达国家和发展中国家之间仍未达成与《京都协议书》一样具有法

律约束性的条文来约束各国的碳排放。至此，碳减排前景一片茫然。因而，研究

碳减排经济效率具有十分重要的意义，不仅能为各国控制碳排放量提供对策建议，

推动碳减排的进程，而且也能为缓解全球气候问题作出贡献。

本文采用数据包络分析方法，从投入产出角度建立了碳减排经济效率评价体

系来测算效率值，并分析了国家间效率存在差异的原因以及碳减排经济效率的影

响因素，得到的主要结论有：（1）本文所研究的 29 个国家的总体碳减排经济效率

一般，均值为 0.652，纯技术效率和规模效率均小于 1，且纯技术效率大于规模效

率，碳减排经济效率受制于规模上的瓶颈和技术上的欠缺；（2）达到 DEA 有效的

国家只有 5个：欧盟、美国、日本、挪威、瑞士，非 DEA 有效国家要提高碳减排

经济效率应该优先考虑减排措施、产业发展、资本投入等方面上的优化，再考虑

改善碳排放量控制、人力投入等方面；（3）欧美等国家因具备碳减排的先发优势

和规模优势、产业结构优势、低碳技术优势而减排经济效率较高，中国的效率较

低为 0.228，排第 26 名，原因是因资源分配偏重经济增长而碳减排投入不足、未

形成碳排放交易体系、CDM 项目处于产业链低端、碳金融服务体系不完善、产业

结构不合理等；（4）碳减排经济效率的影响因素有减排约束、能源强度及结构、

产业结构、经济发展水平、技术水平、对外开放、政府干预等方面；（5）中国碳

减排的发展对策应围绕加大投入、增大规模而展开，具体对策建议包括完善碳排

放交易机制、构建统一的碳排放交易体系、大力发展 CDM 项目、建立碳金融服务

体系、推动产业结构低碳化、加强国际碳合作与对接等方面。

论文结构如下：第一章介绍本文的研究背景、研究意义、相关文献综述、研

究内容及创新点、研究思路及方法；第二章介绍可持续发展、外部性、效率理论

等碳排放相关理论；第三章通过概述评价体系建立原则，确立数据包络分析方法

和DEA 模型，并梳理出投入产出指标，从而建立了碳减排经济效率评价体系；第

四章实证分析，具体包括投入指标的因子分析、碳减排经济效率的评价分析、效

率差异原因及影响因素分析等方面；第五章是政策建议；第六章是结论。

关键词：碳减排经济效率效率评价数据包络分析因子分析

ABSTRACT

With the increasing carbon emissions in the progresss of human economic and

social development, the problem of global climate is becoming more and more serious

and threatening the safety of the earth and human beings. In order to control carbon

emissions effectively, the major developed countries signed the Kyoto protocol, which

has become a milestone of national carbon reduction. However, due to the dislocation of

carbon emissions peak between the developed and developing countries, as of Warsaw's

climate conference in 2013, it has still not been formed between developed and

developing countries that governing the carbon emissions from country to country by a

legally binding like Kyoto protocol. So far, the prospect of carbon reduction is in a

chaos. The study of carbon reduction is of great significance, for it will not only provide

suggestions to control carbon emissions and promote the progress of carbon recduction,

but also make a contribution to mitigate climate problem.

This paper establishes an evaluation system of Carbon Reduction Efficiency (CRE)

from the angle of input-output by data envelopment analysis, which shows the different

efficiency of national carbon reduction. There are five main conclusions as follows.

(1)The overall carbon reduction efficiency of 29 studied countries is in general level,

that is, the mean is 0.652. What’s more, the pure technical efficiency is greater than the

scale efficiency, which indicates that carbon emissions efficiency is subject to the lack

of bottlenecks in the scale and technology.(2)The European Union, the United States,

Japan, Norway and Switzerland are DEA efficient countries, and the rest 24 countries

are not. Compared with controling the carbon emission and increasing human input,

they should give priority to emission reduction measures, industrial development and

capital investment to improve the un-DEA efficiency. (3)The reason of higher carbon

reduction efficiency in European and America is that they have the first-mover

advantage, more reasonable industrial structure and more advanced carbon technology.

China's efficiency is 0.228 and ranks 26. Because it focuses on economy growth and

less resource is allocated to carbon reduction; there is no unified carbon emissions

trading system in China; it is at a disadvantage in CDM trading; its carbon financial

service system needs improved. (4)The main influencing factors of CRE are emissions

constraints measures, energy intensity and structure, industrial structure, economic

development, technology, the degree of opening to other countries, government

intervention, etc. (5)To raise Chinese CRE, we must increase investment and expand the

size of carbon reduction, including constructing the carbon trading mechanism,

improving the carbon trading system, developing CDM project market, establishing

carbon financial services system, optimizing the industrial structure, strengthening

international carbon cooperation and docking, etc.

Paper structure is as follows: The first chapter includes this article’s research

background, research significance, research literature review, research content and

innovation points, research ideas and methods. The second chapter introduces the theory

of sustainable development, externality, efficiency and other related carbon emissions

theory. The third chapter creates the suitable input and output index for DEA analysis

through the overview of principles of establishing evaluation model and establishment

of data envelopment analysis to analyze CER. The fourth chapter is the empirical

analysis, including factor analysis of input indicators, evaluation analysis of CER and so

on. The fifth chapter is the policy recommendations and the sixth is conclusions.

Key Word: Carbon Reduction, Economic Efficiency, Efficiency

Evaluation，Date Envelopment Analysis，Factor Analysis

中文摘要

ABSTRACT

第一章绪论 ...................................................... 1

1.1 研究背景及意义 .............................................. 1

1.1.1 研究背景 ................................................ 1

1.1.2 研究意义 ................................................ 3

1.2 文献综述 .................................................... 5

1.2.1 碳效率指标的研究 ........................................ 5

1.2.2 碳排放效率的测算及影响因素研究 .......................... 6

1.2.3 本节小结 ................................................ 7

1.3 研究思路及方法 ............................................... 8

1.4 研究内容及创新点 ............................................ 9

1.4.1 研究内容与框架 .......................................... 9

1.4.2 本文的创新点 ........................................... 10

第二章碳减排经济效率评价的相关理论 ............................... 12

2.1 碳减排的相关理论 ........................................... 12

2.1.1 可持续发展理论 ......................................... 12

2.1.2 外部性理论 ............................................. 12

2.2 经济效率的相关理论 ......................................... 13

2.2.1 效率理论的概述 ......................................... 13

2.2.2 经济效率的内在机理 ..................................... 14

2.2.3 经济效率的测算模型 ..................................... 16

2.3 碳减排经济效率的提出 ........................................ 17

2.3.1 碳减排经济效率的提出 ................................... 17

2.3.2 与其他碳效率的比较 ..................................... 18

第三章碳减排经济效率评价体系的建立 ............................... 20

3.1 碳减排经济效率评价体系的建立原则 ........................... 20

3.1.1 全面性原则 ............................................. 20

3.1.2 相关性原则 ............................................. 20

3.1.3 定量化原则 ............................................. 20

3.1.4 一致性原则 ............................................. 21

3.2 碳减排经济效率评价方法及模型 ................................ 21

3.2.1 数据包络分析方法 ....................................... 21

3.2.2 碳减排经济效率评价模型 ................................. 21

3.3 碳减排经济效率评价体系的指标构成 ........................... 22

3.3.1 碳减排经济效率评价体系的指标概述 ....................... 22

3.3.2 碳减排经济效率评价体系投入指标的说明 ................... 25

3.3.3 碳减排经济效率评价体系产出指标的说明 ................... 26

第四章碳减排经济效率的实证分析 ................................... 27

4.1 数据来源及相关处理 ......................................... 27

4.2.1 数据来源说明 ........................................... 27

4.2.2 数据处理说明 ........................................... 27

4.2 投入指标的因子分析 ......................................... 31

4.2.1 因子分析的目的 ......................................... 31

4.2.2 投入指标因子分析的结果及说明 ........................... 31

4.3 基于 DEA 的碳减排经济效率评价分析 ........................... 35

4.3.1 DEA 分析的数据说明 ...................................... 35

4.3.2 碳减排经济效率 DEA 分析的结果 ........................... 36

4.3.3 碳减排经济效率评价结果的初步分析 ....................... 38

4.4 各国碳减排经济效率存在差异的原因分析 ........................ 41

4.4.1 欧美碳减排经济效率较高的原因 ........................... 41

4.4.2 中国碳减排经济效率低下的原因 ........................... 42

4.5 碳减排经济效率的影响因素分析 ............................... 44

第五章中国碳减排的发展对策 ....................................... 48

5.1 完善碳排放交易机制 .......................................... 48

5.2 构建统一碳排放交易体系 ...................................... 48

5.3 大力发展 CDM 项目 ............................................ 49

5.4 建立碳金融服务体系 .......................................... 49

5.5 积极推动产业结构低碳化 ...................................... 50

5.6 加强国际碳合作与对接 ........................................ 50

第六章结语 ....................................................... 51

6.1 主要结论 .................................................... 51

6.2 不足与展望 .................................................. 52

附录 ........................................................... 54

附录一几个概念的说明 ......................................... 54

附录二部分国家历年的二氧化碳排放量（1998-2010） .............. 54

附录三投入指标和产出指标源数据 ............................... 55

附录四用于数据包络分析法的数据 ............................... 59

参考文献 ......................................................... 60

在读期间公开发表的论文和承担科研项目及取得成果 ................... 65

致谢 ........................................................... 66

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摘要：

摘要伴随着人类经济社会发展中碳排放量的不断增加，全球气候变化问题日益严峻，严重危害着人类自身的安全和经济的可持续发展。为了有效控制碳排放量，世界主要发达国家间签订了《京都协议书》，此举成为了各国达成碳减排共识的里程碑。然而，缘于发达国家和发展中国家碳排放高峰期的错位，截止2013年的华沙气候会议，发达国家和发展中国家之间仍未达成与《京都协议书》一样具有法律约束性的条文来约束各国的碳排放。至此，碳减排前景一片茫然。因而，研究碳减排经济效率具有十分重要的意义，不仅能为各国控制碳排放量提供对策建议，推动碳减排的进程，而且也能为缓解全球气候问题作出贡献。本文采用数据包络分析方法，从投入产出角度建立了碳...

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