USST_Arts_112050605 上海产业经济系统运行机制及其优化研究

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摘要

自改革开放以来，上海经济始终保持较高速度的增长，第三产业比重持续上

升，产业结构优化升级取得了长足的进步，上海已经成为了引领长三角乃至中国

经济发展的龙头。随着上海城市化进程的加速和国际大都市地位的不断提升，上

海“十二五”规划中实现经济转型的目标为上海产业经济发展提出了更高的要求。

但上海传统产业经济系统运行与发展出现了一定瓶颈，主要表现在传统工业战略

性结构调整进展缓慢、服务业迅速发展仍存在体制和市场等方面的限制因素、产

业经济系统发展环境有待改善等等。因此，深入剖析现代上海经济系统的运行机

理，并找出促进上海产业经济系统优化的路径，成为目前亟待解决的学术与现实

问题。

本文综合运用产业经济学及系统科学的相关理论，采用系统科学研究方法，

定性分析和定量分析相结合进行研究。

首先，阐述产业经济系统的内涵和基本特征，研究上海产业经济系统的运行

状况，找出并分析了加快转型新时期上海产业经济系统运行所存在的问题。

其次，采用灰关联分析探究当今上海产业经济系统的运行机理，得出上海二

三产业之间的灰关联度最高但有下降趋势的结论，通过分析二三产业各行业间的

关联度，对各行业在上海产业经济系统中进行定位并构建系统运行机理图。

再次，研究了上海产业经济系统的优化，构建其评价指标体系，进一步对产

业经济系统进行模拟仿真。

研究表明，构建上海产业经济系统的评价体系是保证产业经济系统优化的客

观需要；根据不同市场环境和发展策略将上海产业经济系统发展状况分为三种状

况，目前上海产业经济系统正处于二三产业为竞争关系的阶段，其中在互惠条件

下具有最高的生产总值，而在偏利第三产业的情况下具有最优的产业结构，促进

上海产业经济系统优化的目标即是促进向该阶段的转变。通过产业转移、产业升

级和产业结构优化协同作用将有利于推动产业经济系统的全面优化。

本文结构如下：第一章为绪论；第二章为产业经济系统理论基础，阐述产业

经济系统的内涵、基本特征以及灰理论和系统动力学理论与方法；第三章为上海

产业经济系统运行机理研究，分析上海产业经济系统的运行状况，并对其进行定

量分析，运用灰关联分析产业经济系统中各经济变量之间的相关性，利用 Logistic

模型和 Lotka-Volterra 模型对产业经济系统进行模拟分析；第四章为上海产业经济

系统优化仿真研究，构建上海产业经济系统的评价体系及其优化模型，并对未来

上海产业经济系统的运行状况进行系统动力学仿真分析；第五章是建议与总结，

对全文主要工作进行总结，提出不足和展望。

关键词：产业经济系统运行机理优化灰关联分析系统动力学

ABSTRACT

Since reform and opening, Shanghai’s GDP grew very fast all the time, the

proportion of the tertiary industry continued to rise, optimizing and upgrading of

industrial structure have be made great progress, Shanghai has become the leading of

the economy of Yangtze river delta and even China. As the acceleration of urbanization

progress and the promotion of Shanghai’s international standing, the goal of Shanghai

"the 12th Five-Year Plan" to achieve economic transformation put forward higher

requirements for Shanghai industrial economic development. But the traditional

industrial economic system appeared a bottleneck for operation and development, for

example, strategic structural adjustment of traditional secondary industry slows down,

there are many limiting factors for the rapid development of the service industry, the

development environment of industrial economic system need to be improved.

Therefore, Research on operation mechanism and finding the way to promote the

optimization of Shanghai industrial economic system is the important problem to be

solved.

This paper utilizes industry economics, system science and other related theories,

uses system science methods, combines qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.

First, elaborating the connotation and basic characteristic of industrial economic

system, finding out and analyzing the problems of Shanghai industrial economic system

in the new period of transformation.

Second, analyzing the operation situation of Shanghai industrial economic system

by grey relational analysis, it is concluded that grey correlation degree between the

secondary and tertiary industries of Shanghai is the highest but there is a trend of

gradual decline, researching the correlation of various industries of secondary and

tertiary industry to locate those industries and build the system operation mechanism.

Third, researching the optimization of Shanghai industrial economic system,

building evaluation system of it, and then simulating the industrial economic system of

the future.

Research shows that building evaluation system of Shanghai industrial economic

system is the objective need to guarantee the optimization of industrial economic

system; According to different market circumstances and development policies,

assuming three conditions of Shanghai industrial economic system in the future,

secondary and tertiary industries of Shanghai compete with each other, Shanghai’s GDP

will be the highest under the condition of mutualism, and the industrial structure will be

the optimal under the condition of commensalism, this stage is the goal of Shanghai

industrial economic system optimization. Industrial upgrading, industrial transfer and

industrial structure optimization are more advantageous to promote the optimization of

the industrial economic system.

This paper structure is as follows, the first chapter is introduction; the second

chapter is theoretical basis of the industrial economic system, elaborating the

connotation and basic characteristic of industrial economic system, and the theories and

methods of grey theory and system dynamics; the third chapter is the research of

Shanghai industrial economic system operation mechanism, analyzing the development

situation of Shanghai’s industrial economic system, analyzing the correlation between

economic variables of industrial economic system by grey relational analysis,

Simulation analysis of industrial economic system is down based on the Logistic model

and Lotka-Volterra model; the fourth chapter is the research of Shanghai industrial

economic system optimization, building evaluation system of Shanghai industrial

economy system and the optimization model, and dynamics simulation analysis is down

of operational status of Shanghai industrial economic system in the future; the fifth

chapter is suggestions and summary, to summarize full paper and put forward the

shortage and outlook.

Key Word: Industrial economic system, Operation mechanism,

Optimization, Grey relation analysis, System dynamics

中文摘要

ABSTRACT

摘要 ................................................................................................................................ 1

第一章绪论 .................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 研究背景 ............................................................................................................... 1

1.2 国内外研究综述 ................................................................................................... 2

1.2.1 国外研究进展 ................................................................................................ 2

1.2.2 国内研究进展 ................................................................................................ 3

1.2.3 上海产业经济系统理论研究 ........................................................................ 5

1.2.4 综合评述 ........................................................................................................ 5

1.3 研究目的及意义 ................................................................................................... 6

1.3.1 研究目的 ........................................................................................................ 6

1.3.2 研究的理论意义 ............................................................................................ 6

1.3.3 研究的现实意义 ............................................................................................ 6

1.4 研究方法、论文结构及创新点 ........................................................................... 7

1.4.1 研究方法 ........................................................................................................ 7

1.4.2 论文结构 ........................................................................................................ 7

1.4.3 技术路线 ........................................................................................................ 8

1.4.4 论文的创新点 ................................................................................................ 9

1.4.5 拟解决的关键问题 ...................................................................................... 10

第二章产业经济系统理论基础 ................................................................................... 11

2.1 产业经济系统的内涵 .......................................................................................... 11

2.2 产业经济系统的基本特征 ................................................................................. 12

2.2.1 产业经济系统的层次性与全息性 .............................................................. 12

2.2.2 产业经济系统的时间性与空间性 .............................................................. 13

2.2.3 产业经济系统的非线性与非平衡性 .......................................................... 14

2.2.4 产业经济系统的自组织性 .......................................................................... 14

2.3 灰理论 ................................................................................................................. 15

2.3.1 产业经济系统的灰性 .................................................................................. 15

2.3.2 灰关联分析理论 .......................................................................................... 15

2.4 系统动力学理论 ................................................................................................. 19

第三章上海产业经济系统运行机理研究 .................................................................. 22

3.1 上海产业经济系统发展现状 ............................................................................. 22

3.2 上海产业经济系统灰关联分析 ......................................................................... 23

3.2.1 上海三次产业灰关联分析 .......................................................................... 23

3.2.2 上海二三产业各行业及其灰关联分析 ...................................................... 27

3.3 上海产业经济系统仿真分析 ............................................................................. 36

3.3.1 基于 Logistic 模型的上海总产值分析 ....................................................... 36

3.3.2 基于 Lotka-Volterra 模型的上海三次产业分析 ......................................... 38

3.4 本章小结 ............................................................................................................. 41

第四章上海产业经济系统优化研究 .......................................................................... 42

4.1 产业经济系统优化的研究基础 ......................................................................... 42

4.2 产业经济系统优化评价 ..................................................................................... 43

4.3 产业经济系统优化模拟仿真 ............................................................................. 46

4.3.1 产业经济系统优化模型的构建 .................................................................. 46

4.3.2 产业经济系统优化模型的仿真分析 .......................................................... 47

4.4 本章小结 ............................................................................................................. 50

第五章政策建议与总结展望 ...................................................................................... 52

5.1 促进上海产业经济系统优化发展的政策建议 .................................................. 52

5.1.1 产业升级 ...................................................................................................... 52

5.1.2 产业转移 ...................................................................................................... 53

5.1.3 产业结构优化 .............................................................................................. 54

5.2 研究总结与展望 ................................................................................................. 55

5.2.1 主要研究总结 .............................................................................................. 55

5.2.2 研究不足与展望 .......................................................................................... 55

参考文献 ........................................................................................................................ 57

在读期间公开发表的论文和承担科研项目及取得成果 ............................................ 60

致谢 ................................................................................................................................ 61

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摘要：

摘要自改革开放以来，上海经济始终保持较高速度的增长，第三产业比重持续上升，产业结构优化升级取得了长足的进步，上海已经成为了引领长三角乃至中国经济发展的龙头。随着上海城市化进程的加速和国际大都市地位的不断提升，上海“十二五”规划中实现经济转型的目标为上海产业经济发展提出了更高的要求。但上海传统产业经济系统运行与发展出现了一定瓶颈，主要表现在传统工业战略性结构调整进展缓慢、服务业迅速发展仍存在体制和市场等方面的限制因素、产业经济系统发展环境有待改善等等。因此，深入剖析现代上海经济系统的运行机理，并找出促进上海产业经济系统优化的路径，成为目前亟待解决的学术与现实问题。本文综合运用产业经济学及系统科学...

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