转型期渐进放松进入管制下的企业并购溢价分析
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硕士学位论文
I
摘要
中国改革开放至今已 30 周年,随着对内经济体制改革的不断深入与对外开
放的不断加强,无论是在转型期不断壮大的民营企业,还是深谙资本运营的跨
国公司,都纷纷通过并购方式进入国内新兴市场,使得并购日益成为转型经济
中最为波澜壮阔的图景。据现有的资料来看,与之前国有企业“贱卖”及其所
引起的国有资产流失之争相对应的是,发生在进入管制渐进放松的产业内的并
购,大多出现了溢价现象。在对现有的关于并购溢价的研究文献进行梳理后,
我们发现,由于中国并购得以发生的市场环境与西方成熟市场经济国家存在体
制上的根本差异,使学术界广泛流行的“溢价—动机”研究范式在中国出现了
解释力不足或水土不服的现象,这无疑对转型经济中的并购溢价实践与理论都
提出了挑战。
本文首先对进入管制理论进行简要梳理,在此基础上,本文用“学习型体
制转型”的相关理论说明了转型期进入管制得以渐进放松的动力机制及其体现,
同时进一步分析了从转型期进入管制渐进放松这一视角来分析并购溢价的可行
性。在这一背景下,结合转型期受进入管制产业垄断的市场结构、在位企业较
强的市场势力以及进入管制渐进放松的现实,本文将古诺模型(
Cournot Model)
和斯坦科尔伯格模型(Stackelberg Model)引入到 3 个基础模型和 4 个扩展模型中
来,并得出相应结论。最后,本文对进入管制渐进放松较为明显的银行业内发
生的并购溢价个案进行分析,对理论模型得出的结论进行验证。
总体而言,本文的主要结论概括为:其一,中国经济转型的学习型特征决
定了进入管制放松的渐进性。其二,进入管制与垄断的市场结构相互维持、互
为促进,并共同维持了高利润。其三,高额利润的利益驱动与进入管制渐进放
松的制度保证构成潜在进入者的进入动力,但是在位企业的排他性行为又使实
际的进入困难重重,甚至归于失败。因此,潜在进入者就有意愿通过并购等方
式实现进入,并愿意为此付出溢价,且进入越早,越能分享垄断的高利润,当
然,进入越早,需要支付的溢价水平也越高。其四,模型演绎与案例分析均表
明,在进入管制渐进放松的过程中,通过并购溢价实现进入总是合意的。并购
进入能有效降低在位企业俘获政府的动机,能有效降低进入管制,这种降低来
源于在位企业俘获政府意愿的下降。其五,新桥集团溢价并购深圳发展银行的
案例分析表明,在解释存在进入管制产业内的企业并购溢价时,现有的“动机
—溢价”理论往往缺乏解释力,这可能是由于我国的并购是在市场经济不完善
的背景下展开的,受“非市场化”因素的影响还很大。
硕士学位论文
II
本文紧紧围绕转型期进入管制渐进放松这一个特点来展开研究,由于对转型
经济特点的把握并非易事,这为研究带来了局限。进入管制渐进放松的视角为
并购溢价的研究提供了一种思路,但并购溢价的影响因素并非仅限于此,综合
把握转型经济的特点以及影响并购溢价的多方面因素将是下一步研究的重点。
同时,本文的结论都是理论上得出的,个案研究虽具有典型意义,但却缺乏普
遍性。在下一步的研究中借助于计量研究,对进入管制渐进放松比较明显的产
业进行综合性的分析也是很有必要的。
关键词:转型期;进入管制;企业并购;并购溢价
硕士学位论文
III
ABSTRACT
As we know, it has been 30 years from China Reforming and Opening Up.
Along with unceasingly deepening reform of China economic system, Both private
enterprises and multinational corporation are eagerly entering domestic emerging
market through the merger & acquisition (M & A) way, which is displaying the most
imposing prospect in transition period. Comparing with the Sells Cheap of national
enterprises and the controversy of state asset outflow, we found that the M & A
premium phenomenon frequently arise in the regulated industries. Based on our
carefully looking back upon existing research on M & A premium, we regrettably
found the research model of Motive-Premium in the economics circles cannot
correctly explain what are happening in China transformation period. We think this
mainly because of the differences between the west mature market economic system
and our transition economics system.
This article firstly looked carefully back upon entry regulation theory, and then
explained the entry regulation which is gradually loosened by making use of the
learning type of economic transition and relative theories. Simultaneously further
analyzed the feasibility of this research. Under this background, we put the emphasis
on the three foundation models and four expansion models which were developed
from Cournot Model and Stackelberg Model. From what has been mentioned above,
we expected to come to corresponding conclusions. Finally we took an example that
occurred in China banking industry to confirm our conclusions.
Overall, the following are this article main conclusions summary. First, the
learning type of China economic transition has decided the gradual reform of entry
regulation. Second, entry regulation and monopoly market structure promoted each
other and has maintained the high profits together. Third, high potential profits and
the institution guarantee of loosening entry regulation attracted large number of
potential entrants. But it was not an easy thing to enter a new industry because of the
obstacles that were set up by incumbent firms. Therefore, the potential entrants had
motive to enter through M & A way and were willing to pay the premium for this.
Certainly, entered more early, paid the premium level was also higher. Fourth, it
always was a seductive way to enter through M & A premium, which could
硕士学位论文
IV
effectively reduce the entry regulation. Firth, the case analysis indicated M & A that
occurred in China transformation period were largely affected by Non-Marketing
factors.
It was not easy to hold all the characteristics of China economic transition,
which caused limits to our research. Although there are many factors to effect M & A
premium, this article has no doubt to bring us a new research vision. It is necessary
to comprehensively analysis many other industries which are obviously loosening
entry regulation on the next research step.
Keywords: Transition Period; Entry Regulation; M&A; M&A Premium
硕士学位论文
V
目录
第一章 绪论.................................................................................................................... 2
第一节 研究背景及意义...........................................................................................2
第二节 国内外研究现状...........................................................................................2
第三节 研究的基本思路、方法与创新点..............................................................2
第二章 相关理论与可行性分析................................................................................... 2
第一节 转型经济中的进入管制及其经济学依据..................................................2
第二节 学习型体制转型与进入管制的渐进放松..................................................2
第三节 转型经济中的并购进入与并购溢价..........................................................2
第四节 分析的可行性............................................................................................... 2
第三章 理论模型与相关推论....................................................................................... 2
第一节 基础模型及推论...........................................................................................2
第二节 模型扩展与相关推论...................................................................................2
第三节 简要的总结................................................................................................... 2
第四章 案例分析:中国银行业并购溢价个案研究.................................................. 2
第一节 案例背景....................................................................................................... 2
第二节 案例介绍与初步讨论...................................................................................2
第三节 本文的分析................................................................................................... 2
第五章 结语.................................................................................................................... 2
第一节 研究的主要结论...........................................................................................2
第二节 继续研究的方向...........................................................................................2
参考文献.......................................................................................................................... 2
附录
.................................................................................................................................2
摘要:
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硕士学位论文I摘要中国改革开放至今已30周年,随着对内经济体制改革的不断深入与对外开放的不断加强,无论是在转型期不断壮大的民营企业,还是深谙资本运营的跨国公司,都纷纷通过并购方式进入国内新兴市场,使得并购日益成为转型经济中最为波澜壮阔的图景。据现有的资料来看,与之前国有企业“贱卖”及其所引起的国有资产流失之争相对应的是,发生在进入管制渐进放松的产业内的并购,大多出现了溢价现象。在对现有的关于并购溢价的研究文献进行梳理后,我们发现,由于中国并购得以发生的市场环境与西方成熟市场经济国家存在体制上的根本差异,使学术界广泛流行的“溢价—动机”研究范式在中国出现了解释力不足或水土不服的现象,这无疑对转型...
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作者:李江
分类:高等教育资料
价格:15积分
属性:60 页
大小:662.55KB
格式:PDF
时间:2024-11-06