工业排放造成全球变暖动态特性及滞后现象分析
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摘 要
全球变暖是人类共同关注的热点问题，其导致了大范围的冰雪融化、海平面
上升、极端天气事件等现象频繁地发生。为了有效减缓和应对气候变暖趋势、控
制温室气体排放，包括欧盟成员国在内的一百多个国家和众多国际组织已经将避
免2℃全球变暖作为温室气体减排的目标。因为，地球温升一旦超过 2℃，气候变
化将会受到深刻的影响。同时，当前对地球表面温度升高的确定及全球升温的变
化趋势的预测还存在很多不确定因素。因此，本文希望从工程热物理角度出发，
综合大气化学、大气科学等多学科知识，运用定量分析方法、数值模拟法等多种
研究方法处理实际问题，来研究工业排放造成全球变暖现象分析、建立地球变暖
动态数学模型以及对地球变暖滞后效应进行分析。
首先，通过对温室气体吸收地球辐射引起的温室效应和温室气体排放过程中
产生的人为热释放引起的温室效应进行分析比较，得到两者的温室效应贡献值及
对地球变暖的贡献值；可以得出结论：温室气体吸收地球辐射引起的温室效应对
全球变暖的作用远远大于温室气体排放过程中产生的人为热释放对全球变暖的作
用；同时可知 CO2是全球变暖的主要因素，其对全球变暖的贡献权重达到 60%，
CH4的贡献权重达到 18%，所有的氟氯烃及替代品的贡献权重达到12%。
其次，从辐射传热的角度考虑温室气体的温室效应，建立了简化的辐射传输
模型。该模型考虑了地球辐射以及水汽、臭氧、二氧化碳等大气温室气体对辐射
传输的影响，通过确定吸收系数的大小、计算步数、大气模型等得到简化的辐射
传输模型，可以实现从地面到大气层任意高度的净辐射通量的计算，进而得到辐
射强迫。
然后，通过分析地球、大气、太阳三者热平衡体系的辐射换热，建立地球及
其大气的动态数学模型，通过此模型得到造成地球温度变化的主要原因和变暖滞
后的现象。进而可知大气和地球动态温度变化具有很大的滞后特性，大气温度变
化滞后时间为 2.78h，地球温度变化滞后时间为 30.49a。
最后，结合温室气体大气中的滞留时间与排放速率，建立了温室气体浓度变
化的预测模型。在此基础上，通过考察近年来的排放速率，给出了温室气体在不
同衰变周期条件下其未来的变化趋势；同时，通过取温室气体不同浓度的上升斜
率，给出了温室气体排放控制时间表，及最终地球环境温度的可控极限值。
关键词：工业排放 全球变暖 温室效应 动态特性 滞后现象
ABSTRACT
Global warming is a global hot issue of common concern of mankind. It resulted in
a wide range of ice-melting, sea level rise, extreme weather events. In order to
effectively mitigate and cope with climate warming trend and control the GHG emission,
more than 100 countries and numerous international organizations, include European
Union member states, have been to keep the global warming below 2 ℃ as a target.
Because the earth temperature rise once exceeds 2℃, the climate would receive a
profound impact. At the same time, there are still many uncertainties from the
theoretical analysis, especially to determine the earth’s surface temperature and global
trends predict. Thus, from the perspective of engineering thermophysics, combined with
atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric science and so on, quantitative analysis method and
numerical simulation method are used in this paper. The global warming phenomenon is
discussed, and then the dynamic mathematical model of the earth is established, and the
hysteresis on global warming is analyzed.
Firstly, the greenhouse effect caused by the absorption of earth emission of GHG
and anthropogenic heat release which are both relative to the industrial emission
is respectively calculated and compared with. It can thus be concluded that the two
factors are both work on global warming and the former one is far more important than
the latter one on the global warming. The carbon dioxide is the major factor among the
GHG. The contribution of the earth warming of carbon dioxide is accounted for 60%,
the methane is accounted for 18%, the CFCs and their substitutes are accounted for
12%.
Secondly, from the point view of radiative heat transfer ,in order to calculate the
greenhouse effect of GHG, The one-dimensional net radiation flux model of the
atmosphere is established .The earth emission ,water vapor, ozone, and carbon dioxide
and the forth are considered. By identifying the absorption coefficient, calculating steps,
atmospheric model, concentration of GHG, the net radiation flux and radiative forcing
can be calculated at each layer of the atmosphere,
Then, through the analysis of radiative heat transfer on the heat balance system
which is the earth, atmosphere and solar, a dynamic mathematical model is established.
The dynamic mathematical model can be used to analyze the main reasons of the
temperature change on earth and the hysteresis of warming. The result shows that the
change of temperature on the atmosphere and earth existing a large latency. The
residence time of the change on atmosphere is 2.78h, the residence time of the change
on earth is 30.49a.
At last, combined emission rate and residence time of GHG, prediction model of
concentration is established. On the base of this, a trend of concentration change of
GHG is presented. Assuming different concentration speed rate, a GHG emissions
control schedule is given .The final temperature controllable limits of the earth
environment is obtained.
Key Words：industrial emission, global warming, greenhouse effect,
dynamic characteristics , hysteresis phenomenon
目 录
中文摘要
ABSTRACT
第一章 绪 论 .................................................................................................................. 1
1.1 课题背景及意义 ................................................................................................ 1
1.2 全球变暖的不确定性 ........................................................................................ 6
1.3 国内外研究现状 ................................................................................................ 8
1.3.1 国内研究现状 .......................................................................................... 8
1.3.2 国外研究现状 .......................................................................................... 8
1.4 本文主要工作内容 ............................................................................................ 9
第二章 工业排放及其温室效应分析 ...........................................................................11
2.1 工业排放产生的温室气体 ...............................................................................11
2.1.1 二氧化碳的排放 .................................................................................... 12
2.1.2 甲烷的排放 ............................................................................................ 13
2.1.3 氧化亚氮的排放 .................................................................................... 14
2.1.4 氟氯烃及替代品的排放 ........................................................................ 15
2.2 工业排放温室气体的温室效应 ...................................................................... 16
2.2.1 温室效应计算方法 ................................................................................ 16
2.2.2 温室气体的温室效应 ............................................................................ 17
2.2.3 温室气体引起的温升 ............................................................................. 17
2.3 工业排放热量引起的全球变暖 ....................................................................... 18
2.3.1 人为热释放的计算方法 ........................................................................ 19
2.3.2 全球能源消耗热释放 ............................................................................. 19
2.3.3 人体新陈代谢作用所产生的气候强迫 ................................................. 21
2.3.4 人为热释放引起的温室效应 ................................................................. 21
2.3.5 人为热释放引起的温升 ........................................................................ 22
2.4 人为活动对全球变暖的比较分析 .................................................................. 23
2.5 本章小结 .......................................................................................................... 24
第三章 简化辐射传递方程计算辐射强迫 .................................................................. 25
3.1 简化的辐射传递方程模型 .............................................................................. 25
3.1.1 模型假设 ................................................................................................ 26
3.1.2 模型示意图 ............................................................................................ 26
3.1.3 模型计算方法 ........................................................................................ 26
3.1.4 简化辐射传递方程模型框图 ................................................................ 28
3.1.5 简化辐射传递方程模型实现步骤 ......................................................... 28
3.2 模型算例分析 ................................................................................................... 32
3.2.1 二氧化碳的辐射强迫 ............................................................................ 32
3.2.2 温室气体的辐射强迫比较 ..................................................................... 33
3.3 简化的辐射传输模型与其他模型的比较分析 .............................................. 33
3.4 本章小结 ........................................................................................................... 34
第四章 地球变暖动态特性分析 .................................................................................. 36
4.1 动态特性概述 .................................................................................................. 36
4.2 全球变暖的滞后概述 ...................................................................................... 36
4.3 全球变暖的动态特性模型 .............................................................................. 37
4.4 全球变暖动态数学模型 .................................................................................. 38
4.4.1 地球温度变化数学模型 ........................................................................ 39
4.4.2 大气温度变化数学模型 ........................................................................ 39
4.5 全球变暖原因分析 .......................................................................................... 40
4.6 温室气体造成的地球升温的滞后效应 .......................................................... 40
4.6.1 地球变暖时间常数 ................................................................................ 40
4.6.2 地球和大气升温数学模型的传递函数 ................................................ 41
4.6.3 地球和大气升温的时间常数 ................................................................ 41
4.7 地球升温数学模型预测未来地球温度变化 .................................................. 42
4.7.1 温室气体引起的地球温度变化 ............................................................ 43
4.8 本章小结 .......................................................................................................... 44
第五章 考虑温室效应滞后的模型预测控制 .............................................................. 45
5.1 温室气体的滞留时间 ....................................................................................... 45
5.2 温室气体的排放速率 ...................................................................................... 45
5.3 温室气体浓度变化预测模型 .......................................................................... 46
5.4 不同排放速率下的温室气体含量变化规律 ................................................... 47
5.4.1 两种排放速率下的二氧化碳含量变化规律 ......................................... 48
5.4.2 两种排放速率下的其它温室气体含量变化规律 ................................. 48
5.5 温室气体含量变化规律 .................................................................................. 49
5.5.1 二氧化碳阶跃增加情况分析 ................................................................ 49
5.5.2 二氧化碳线性增加情况分析 ................................................................. 50
5.6 温室气体浓度变化的未来预测 ....................................................................... 51
5.6.1 以现今阶跃增长排放速率的未来浓度预测 ......................................... 52
5.6.2 以现今线性增长排放速率的未来浓度预测 ......................................... 52
5.7 温室气体未来引起温升 ................................................................................... 53
5.8 本章结论 .......................................................................................................... 55
第六章 结论与展望 ...................................................................................................... 56
6.1 结论 .................................................................................................................. 56
6.2 展望 .................................................................................................................. 57
参考文献 ........................................................................................................................ 58
在读期间公开发表的论文和承担科研项目及取得成果 ............................................ 63
致 谢 .............................................................................................................................. 64
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作者：赵德峰
分类：高等教育资料
价格：15积分
属性：68 页
大小：3.4MB
格式：PDF
时间：2025-01-09
