保障性住房供求问题研究——以上海市为例

VIP免费
3.0 陈辉 2024-11-19 5 4 1.28MB 87 页 15积分
侵权投诉
摘 要
1998 年我国住房制度改革以来,上海市的房地产业得到了迅猛的发展,
对经济增长起到积极的带动作用。同时房地产市场的过快发展也带来了一系列的
社会问题,房价过高,越来越多的人买不起房。房地产关系到国计民生。近年来,
为了抑制房价的迅速攀升和应对部分城市房价过高,政府已加大对保障性住房的
建设,使得更多的中低收入家庭能够从中受益。
从对宏观经济的影响来看,加大对保障性住房的投资也有利于经济“软着陆”
保障性住房市场潜力很大,能带动建筑建材、钢铁业、轻工家具等上下游关联产
业的发展,部分弥补商品房投资下降对经济的影响。保障性住房的供给对象主要
是中低收入阶层。影响保障性住房供给和需求的因素很多。本文先是对国内外住
房保障水平的研究分析归纳,其次是介绍了上海保障性住房建设情况,再次是以
上海市保障性住房为例对保障性住房供求影响因素和保障性住房供需进行实证分
析。通过研究发现上海市的房价已经严重过高,一般情况下,房价越高,中低收
入家庭对保障性住房的需求越高。但是通过实证分析,上海市房价与保障性住房
的需求没有关系;通过多元回归得出住房保障水平与各影响因素的线性关系;通
过上海市保障性住房供给与需求的对比分析,得出上海市的保障性住房供不应求。
本文的创新点在于利用多元回归模型分析了上海市住房保障水平与其影响因
素的多元线性关系和上海市保障性住房的供需对比分析。特别是在研究上海市保
障性住房需求方面,引用了人均可支配收入“五分法”再结合上海市普通商品房
均价及住房贷款利率,得出需要申请保障性住房的保障户比例。
中国房地产市场蒸蒸日上,但是城市中低收入家庭的居住条件却越显不公平。
保障性住房建设成为中国首要的社会问题。政府的一系列措施,也让我们看到了
政府加大保障性住房供给的决心。保障性住房现阶段的问题就是供不应求,本文
最后根据理论和实证分析提出了一些对策和建议。
关键词:保障性住房 影响因素 供求水平
ABSTRACT
Since China’s housing system reform in 1998, the real estate industry of shanghai
has achieved rapid development, and has played an active leading role in the economic
growth. However, the fast development of the real estate market also brought a series of
social problems. The price of the houses is so high that more and more people can’t
afford to buy them. Real estate is related to the people’s livelihood. In recent years, in
order to prevent house price rising rapidly and cope with overpricing in some cities, the
government has stepped up to increase the development of property housing, so that
more middle and low income family can benefit from it.
From the macroeconomic impact, the increase in the investment in affordable housing is
also conducive to economic ‘soft landing’. Affordable housing market has great
potential to bring the development of building materials, cement and steel, light
furniture and related upstream and downstream industries, partially offsetting the impact
on economy from the decline in investment of the real estate. The supply of affordable
housing was mainly targeted at middle and low income class. There are many factors in
influencing the supply and demand of affordable housing. The paper first analyzes and
sums up the development of both domestic and international affordable housing,
followed by the introduction of the construction of affordable housing in Shanghai, then
taking shanghai affordable housing as an example to analyze the influencing factors of
affordable housing and its supply and demand. Through the study, we can find that the
housing price in Shanghai is exorbitant. Under normal circumstances, the higher the
price is, the more demand for affordable housing of the low-income families. However,
through empirical analysis, Shanghai house prices and the demand for affordable
housing does not relate with each other; through multi-analysis we can find the linear
relationship between the developing levels of affordable housing and its influencing
factors; and through contrast of supply and demand of Shanghai affordable housing, we
can conclude that there exists housing shortage in Shanghai.
Innovation of this paper is to use a multiple regression model to analyze the linear
relationship between the developing level of affordable housing in Shanghai and its
influencing factors, and the comparison between the supply and demand of affordable
housing in Shanghai. Especially in the research of the needs in affordable housing in
Shanghai, the paper refers to "five laws" of the per capita disposable income, combines
with ordinary commercial housing price in Shanghai and housing loan interest rates,
then gets the proportion of people who can apply for the affordable housing.
China’s real estate market is booming now, but the living conditions of middle and
low income families were not fair. So the construction of affordable housing is
becoming the primary social problem in China. Series of government measures also
show the governments commitment in increasing the supply of affordable housing. The
problem of affordable housing is in short supply at this stage, this article also raise some
countermeasures and suggestions through theoretical and empirical analysis.
Key word: affordable housing, influencing factor, supply and demand
levels
目 录
中文摘要
ABSTRACT
第一章 绪 论 ......................................................... 1
§1.1 本文的选题背景及意义 ........................................ 1
§1.1.1 选题的背景 .............................................. 1
§1.1.2 选题的目的和意义 ........................................ 1
§1.2 技术路线和数据来源 .......................................... 2
§1.2.1 技术路线 ................................................ 2
§1.2.2 数据来源 ................................................ 3
§1.3 论文结构 .................................................... 3
§1.4 论文的创新点与不足 .......................................... 4
§1.4.1 本文的创新点 ............................................ 4
§1.4.2 本文的不足和局限 ........................................ 4
第二章 国内外相关理论文献的综述 ...................................... 6
§2.1 保障性住房相关文献 .......................................... 6
§2.1.1 社会保障水平研究 ........................................ 6
§2.1.2 住房保障水平研究 ........................................ 6
§2.1.3 社会保障水平与经济发展水平的研究 ........................ 7
§2.2 住房保障水平的研究 ......................................... 10
§2.2.1 房地产发展理论 ......................................... 10
§2.2.2 住房保障水平研究 ....................................... 11
§2.3 社会保障理论 ............................................... 12
§2.3.1 西方的社会保障理论 ..................................... 12
§2.3.2 马克思主义社会保障理论 ................................. 13
§2.4 房地产供需理论 ............................................. 14
§2.4.1 房地产需求 ............................................. 14
§2.4.2 房地产供给理论 ......................................... 16
§2.4.3 房地产市场供求均衡 ..................................... 18
第三章 上海市保障性住房现状分析 ..................................... 20
§3.1 保障性住房的定义及其分类形式 ............................... 20
§3.1.1 保障性住房 ............................................. 20
§3.1.2 保障性住房的形式 ....................................... 21
§3.2 上海市保障性住房的发展现状 ................................. 22
§3.2.1 经济适用房 ............................................. 22
§3.2.2 廉租房 ................................................. 23
§3.2.3 重大工程配套商品用房 ................................... 26
§3.2.4 旧区、旧房整治改造 ..................................... 27
§3.2.5 公房租赁 ............................................... 28
§3.3 上海市保障性住房体系发展过程中存在的问题 ................... 31
§3.3.1 经济适用房体系发展过程中存在的问题 ..................... 31
§3.3.2 廉租住房体系发展过程中存在的问题 ....................... 32
§3.3.3 重大工程配套商品用房发展过程中存在的问题 ............... 33
§3.3.4 旧区、旧房整治改造过程中存在的问题 ..................... 33
§3.3.5 公房租赁过程中存在的问题 ............................... 34
第四章 保障性住房供求水平及其影响因素分析 ........................... 35
§4.1 保障性住房总体发展趋势 ..................................... 35
§4.1.1 国民经济的发展趋势 ..................................... 35
§4.1.2 房地产业的发展趋势 ..................................... 36
§4.1.3 社会阶层的发展趋势 ..................................... 37
§4.1.4 个人保障意识的趋势 ..................................... 37
§4.2 上海市住房保障水平阶段模式的测定 ........................... 37
§4.2.1 国际上保障性住房阶段性发展模式 ......................... 38
§4.2.2 上海保障性住房阶段模式测定 ............................. 39
§4.3 保障性住房供求水平的影响因素分析 ........................... 41
§4.3.1 从需求角度考虑影响保障性住房的主要因素 ................. 41
§4.3.2 从供给角度考虑保障性住房的影响因素 ..................... 44
§4.3.3 从供求双方角度考虑保障性住房水平影响因素 ............... 45
第五章 保障性住房供求问题实证分析 ................................... 47
§5.1 上海保障性住房影响因素分析 ................................. 47
§5.1.1 模型的假定及变量的选取 ................................. 47
§5.1.2 变量的逐步回归 ......................................... 50
§5.2 北京市保障性住房影响因素分析 ............................... 52
§5.2.1 变量的选取 ............................................. 52
§5.2.2 自变量的相关性检验与多元回归 ........................... 53
§5.2.3 对比分析影响保障性住房的因素 ........................... 54
§5.3 从需求角度测算上海市保障性住房水平 ......................... 56
§5.3.1 上海商品住宅价格 ....................................... 56
§5.3.2 单套住宅总价及年还贷额 ................................. 57
§5.3.3 保障户比例 ............................................. 58
§5.4 从供给角度测算上海市保障性住房水平 ......................... 59
§5.4.1 上海市 20082009 年保障性住房建设计划 .................. 59
§5.4.2 借鉴国际经验测算上海保障性住房支出总额 ................. 60
§5.5 需求水平和供给水平比较 ..................................... 60
第六章 针对上海市保障性住房供求矛盾的建议 ........................... 62
§6.1 上海市建立低收入居民住房保障体系的原则 ..................... 62
§6.2 确立科学的保障目标 ......................................... 63
§6.2.1 保障性住房的供给对象 ................................... 63
§6.2.2 保障性住房供给标准 ..................................... 64
§6.3 建立有效的房源供应模式 ..................................... 65
§6.3.1 确保新建住房“经济适用” ............................... 65
§6.3.2 充分利用旧房加大房源供应 ............................... 66
§6.4 地方政府摆脱“土地财政依赖症”,改变对待房价的态度 .......... 67
§6.4.1 全国土地出让金的情况及其与房价的关系 ................... 67
§6.4.2 充分发挥政府职能,扭转对待房价的态度 ................... 68
§6.5 探索多渠道的融资方式 ....................................... 68
§6.5.1 大力完善住房公积金制度 ................................. 69
§6.5.2 建立多元化的政策性住房金融体系 ......................... 71
结束语 .............................................................. 72
............................................................... 73
在读期间公开发表的论文和承担科研项目及取得成果 ...................... 78
参考文献 ............................................................ 78
.............................................................. 83
摘要:

摘要自1998年我国住房制度改革以来,上海市的房地产业得到了迅猛的发展,并对经济增长起到积极的带动作用。同时房地产市场的过快发展也带来了一系列的社会问题,房价过高,越来越多的人买不起房。房地产关系到国计民生。近年来,为了抑制房价的迅速攀升和应对部分城市房价过高,政府已加大对保障性住房的建设,使得更多的中低收入家庭能够从中受益。从对宏观经济的影响来看,加大对保障性住房的投资也有利于经济“软着陆”。保障性住房市场潜力很大,能带动建筑建材、钢铁业、轻工家具等上下游关联产业的发展,部分弥补商品房投资下降对经济的影响。保障性住房的供给对象主要是中低收入阶层。影响保障性住房供给和需求的因素很多。本文先是对...

展开>> 收起<<
保障性住房供求问题研究——以上海市为例.pdf

共87页,预览9页

还剩页未读, 继续阅读

作者:陈辉 分类:高等教育资料 价格:15积分 属性:87 页 大小:1.28MB 格式:PDF 时间:2024-11-19

开通VIP享超值会员特权

  • 多端同步记录
  • 高速下载文档
  • 免费文档工具
  • 分享文档赚钱
  • 每日登录抽奖
  • 优质衍生服务
/ 87
客服
关注