ABSTRACT
Transport is a basic industry of the national economy, playing a role as skeleton
and vascular to the whole society and economy, supporting the development of other
industries and diverting the flows of people and materials between industries and
regions. Whether the transport investment is appropriet directly infects the operation of
economy, production and people’s life. Therefore, the relation between transport
investment and economic growth has always been a hot topic among economists and
scholars. Due to different study objects and research methords, the results often differ
wildly. As China’s economy is quite special, to find out the relation between transport
investment and economic growth in China, specialized research with China as the study
object is necessary.
Grounding on the analysis of the history and present condition of transport
investment and economic growth in China, and strating upon the research results of
domestic and overseas scholars, this paper holds Shanghai as an example, made deep
empirical analysis of the relation between transport investment and economic growth
through econometric approach. Through the cointegration test, it reveals that there is
long-term cointegration relationship between transport investment and economic growth;
upon the establishment of VAR Model, we get the forecast of Shanghai transport
investment and economic growth till 2020; through Granger causality test, we get the
conclusion that transport investment is not the Granger cause of economic growth,
while economic growth is the Granger cause of transport investment, revealing that in
modern Shanghai, transport investment is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for
economic growth; upon the establishment of ECM Model, we get the correlation
coefficient and the short-term dynamic changes relation between transport investment
and economic growth.
On the basis of quantitative analysis, this paper absorts experience of transport
investment from mature cosmopolitans such as Tokyo, Lundon and New York, and
summarizes the inspirations Shanghai has got from advanced countries’ experience on
transport investment. After reviewing and reflecting the history and present condition of
transport investment and economic growth in Shanghai, this paper analyses the strength,
weakness, opportunites and threats Shanghai has got in the aspect of transport